Methodology
Evidence first. Forecast second.
The system records what a source actually establishes, preserves uncertainty, and withholds probability claims until they beat a simple baseline in repeated evaluations.
The core rule
Timing and proof are different questions.
A statement that a reset is planned can support a forecast. It cannot prove the action happened. An official completion post can establish that the action was triggered. It cannot prove the change reached every account. Reset Beacon tracks these as separate states.
When the evidence feed fails, the forecast disappears. Stale confidence is worse than an explicit unknown.
State model
What each label establishes.
The public label advances only when evidence meets the rule for that state. Corrections can move an event backward.
- No current signal
- No fresh evidence supports a special reset event.
- Unverified report
- A claim exists, but its origin, context or independence is not strong enough for scheduling.
- Official intent
- An authorized source states that a reset is planned, without a usable time.
- Officially scheduled
- An official source gives a date, time or bounded window. The original wording and timezone are retained.
- Action claimed
- An official source says the reset action completed. Account propagation may still be pending.
- Rollout observed
- Fresh, non-duplicate paid-account reports show before-and-after changes across more than one plan and region. Sample limits remain visible.
- Account confirmed
- A user’s fresh account reading shows a material allowance change outside its natural reset and without consuming a banked credit.
- Window passed, unconfirmed
- The scheduled window ended without enough action or rollout evidence.
- Corrected or cancelled
- A source changed the timing, withdrew the plan, or later evidence invalidated the event.
Time handling
One instant, three useful views.
Every machine-readable time is stored as an exact UTC instant. The page then renders it in the visitor’s device timezone with Intl.DateTimeFormat. The source timezone remains directly below it, and UTC is available as an audit fallback.
Evidence weight
Source strength is not a vote count.
Ten reposts of one claim remain one underlying source. We cluster duplicates before they can affect the state.
| Evidence class | Typical use | Cannot prove |
|---|---|---|
| Official explicit time | Scheduling a reset window | Completion or account propagation |
| Official clarification | Resolving date, hour or wording | That the action happened |
| Official completion statement | Advancing to action claimed | That every account updated |
| Fresh account reading | Personal account confirmation | Universal rollout by itself |
| Independent paid-user reports | Measuring rollout breadth | Official scheduling |
| Status incidents and historical patterns | Context and prior probability | A special reset commitment |
Accuracy
Scores must earn their place.
A future probability model will use time-bucketed event forecasting and be tested on data it did not train on. Published evaluations will include Brier score, log loss, calibration, interval coverage, false alerts, missed events and detection delay.
No probability will appear on the public forecast until the model beats a deterministic baseline in two consecutive rolling evaluations. Until then, Reset Beacon publishes evidence states and bounded windows, not decorative percentages.
Corrections
Source edits, timezone ambiguity and missed windows remain in the event record. Corrections are sent immediately to subscribers who received the affected alert.